Sunday, January 07, 2007


"Israel's political leaders have failed to develop a clear national deterrence doctrine or provide any reliable insight into Iranian motives."

--Dr. Reuven Pedatzur, to The Jerusalem Post, July 2000

ISRAEL--The government in Israel is lying, but about what? It's possible that Israel's political and intelligence community (Mossad) is putting some disinformation out there. The Problem is, the intended-effect is still an military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The denials are interesting, if not potentially choreographed:

"I refuse to believe that anyone here would consider using nuclear weapons against Iran," Reuven Pedatzur, a prominent defense analyst and columnist for the daily Haaretz, told the AP. "It is possible that this was a leak done on purpose, as deterrence, to say 'someone better hold us back, before we do something crazy.'" (AP, 01.07.2007)

Dr. Reuven Pedatzur is a "Tel Aviv University defense studies professor" and "a former fighter pilot who provides briefings to the IDF's National Security College and hosts the weekly defense issues show on Army Radio" (Jerusalem Post, 07.23.2000). Pedatzur often clashes with Knesset politicos regarding Israeli military and intelligence policies. Another defense analyst in Israel who's chiming-in has an interesting-background: Dr. Ephraim Kam. He was "a former senior army intelligence officer", meaning he probably cannot be trusted on this issue. Granted, everyone in Israel has compulsory military service, but this is different in his case, he was a spy. But back to Pedatzur, who was part of this exchange with UPI in October of 2006:

Several experts said Israel would have to be explicit once Iran obtains a nuclear weapon. Then there will be no alternative but to engage in nuclear deterrence because the cost of a mistake would be intolerable, said Reuven Pedatzur of the Strategic Dialogue Center of Netanya College. (UPI, 10.24.2006)

He also dismisses the story by the Times of London, along with Kam--perhaps they should trade-notes with Professore Mario Scaramella (maybe they already have). It's strange when a power so fully-reveals her desires and intentions this baldly, and with such threats, but it wouldn't be the first time. It is believed that in 1946, President Truman threatened the Soviet Union with nuclear attack if they kept troops in Kurdish and Azerbaijan regions in what was northern Iran. The difference is, knowledge of it was hidden-away from the world community for several-years. Nuclear blackmail is not new.

So, what you have here is a game of high-stakes poker. Make the other guy blink, make him react--but is the other guy the United States? In-part, yes. Israel has a right to feel vulnerable. She's tiny, with Iran being almost 70-times larger, geographically. So, there are elements within Israel who want to maintain deterrence through a "vagueness" on their nuclear status--"do they have it, or not?" In this case, the question is "do they have tactical nukes? One has to wonder if the Bush administration provided them with unconventional "bunker busters", as they have already given conventional ones to them. Stirring the hornet's nest isn't going to make Israel or the region any safer or stable. Israel threatened to use nuclear weapons during the 1973 "October war." Did it provide the region lasting-stability? Remember also, that President Bush has threatened to attack Iran's facilities with bunker buster bombs.

Denial of the Moloch Plan:

UPI and Pedatzur:

Jerusalem Post on Iran and Israeli Deterrence: or

AFSC (Quaker anti-war group) List of Nuclear Blackmail and Other Threats: